I’m Becoming Speculation Averse

There’s this game that we used to play in college, called F***, Marry, or Kill. Someone would name three people, public figures or people commonly known to all the players, and you’d have to place each person in one of the categories. No two could share a category. It could be quite enlightening.

But I’m older now, and I’m starting to play a new game. It’s called Fact, Speculation or Opinion. It deals with details, not individuals. I watch or read about a given event, and as the reporter holds forth, I break the message down into bullet points in my mind, and determine which category each bullet point falls under.

Some people might struggle with the difference between speculation and opinion. The way I see it, when one speculates, they’re throwing out ideas as to what the truth may be in the matter. These speculations can have an agenda to sway the public toward a conspiracy theory, or they may come from a genuine desire to get to the bottom of things, despite a lack of solid evidence.

Opinions, on the other hand, are what you believe about a topic, whether the facts support your opinion or not. I’m only just beginning to realize that most neurotypical people are heavily invested in having others agree with their opinions. I’m all for that if your opinion is based on logic, but if you’re simply parroting the opinion that someone else has given you, or you’re leading with pure emotion, then I lose all respect for your thought process.

Speculations often lead to opinions, but they’re not identical. Either way, they’re not helpful. Basically, until all the facts are in, you are pulling conclusions out of your hind end. Who needs that?

Facts ought to be self explanatory. You’d think they would be. But critical thinking seems to have flown right out the window, and people seem to believe actual evidence is a waste of time. It makes me feel like there is no solid ground anymore, and that feels really scary to me.

But you know what’s scarier still? Now that I play this game regularly, I’m truly realizing how often reporters veer deep into the realm of speculation and opinion. Journalism is supposed to be anathema to that. But facts no longer seem to matter. and when you couple that with a total lack of critical thinking by those who consume this information, it is a dangerous path that society is walking down.

Please don’t take this as an opportunity to tar every journalist with the “fake news” brush. I only do that if I feel that they have a heavy agenda and they know darned well that what they are saying is a complete fabrication. Those types are the lowest of the low. But not all reporting is like that.

Some people stumble into the land of speculation or opinion without even realizing it. The amount of information flowing these days is so overwhelming that it’s impossible to keep up with. Even so, there is a great deal of pressure for reporters to tie up every story in a pretty little bow. Otherwise we stop paying attention.

Unfortunately, life isn’t usually like that. Therefore, reporters are increasingly tempted to speculate and share opinions rather than dig to the very root of the matter. There’s just no time for that in our fast paced world.

If you want some practice in playing Fact, Speculation, or Opinion, I suggest you head on over to the PolitiFact page and see how they go about debunking articles through their Pants on Fire! fact checks. Not only will it strengthen your ability to think critically, but it will also teach you what types of questions need to be asked in various situations. It’s quite eye opening.

For example, there’s been this story going around on social media that COVID vaccines caused more deaths than lives saved. You can see PolitiFact’s investigation of this story here.

First, PolitiFact checked the source of the information, and found that it came from Children’s Health Defense, an organization that has been proven to spread misinformation about vaccines. They also discovered that the story was based on a research paper written by two men who have been known to spread misinformation about both COVID and vaccines.

Next, PolitiFact checked with many experts on infectious diseases. They all agreed that the stories and the paper in question are based on misinformation which is contradicted by the facts. The global public health community agrees that these vaccines are both safe and effective. This is based on hundreds of peer reviewed papers that all draw this conclusion. Fact.

In addition, the paper in question was only published in one very obscure journal that has shown itself to be both predatory and controversial. The paper’s data comes from our VAERS system, where the public can report health effects that they believe came from their vaccination. Speculations. These reports are not run past people’s general practitioners, who are better equipped to determine the cause of an issue. I might think the blue sky is the reason my eyes are blue, but my doctor would never sign off on that. The data from VAERS is flawed and always has been. It even has that disclaimer on the website. Fact.

The paper also claims that the vaccine didn’t go through adequate testing, when all procedural evidence shows that not to be true. It also claims that the vaccinations can alter your DNA, which is scientifically impossible. Public health records indicate that 13 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered worldwide, and it is estimated that they have saved 14.4 million lives.

But the best part of the PolitiFact determination is that at the end it provides 37 sources for both the false claims and the proof that those claims are false. That alone makes me believe that they’ve done their homework, and didn’t just write something based on one hysterical paper that is entirely speculative (and I would say it is also extremely biased). People want this information to be true because it supports their debunked opinions. But these stories don’t hold water.

I have broken down so many stories into bullet points that I then have categorized as pure speculation that I’m starting to get irritated. Crystal balls may be pretty and tempting, but I don’t care about what people think might be the case. I don’t really care about their opinions, either. I want evidence. I want proof. I’m beginning to think that anything other than that is a gigantic waste of time. And I really, really hate having my time wasted. That, too, is a fact.

By the way, Dear Reader, I have never claimed to be a reporter. I mainly write opinion pieces, but my opinions are often backed by sources which I do my best to provide.

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