fact – The View from a Drawbridge

I’m Becoming Speculation Averse

Until the facts are in, there’s no sense in pulling conclusions out of your hind end.

There’s this game that we used to play in college, called F***, Marry, or Kill. Someone would name three people, public figures or people commonly known to all the players, and you’d have to place each person in one of the categories. No two could share a category. It could be quite enlightening.

But I’m older now, and I’m starting to play a new game. It’s called Fact, Speculation or Opinion. It deals with details, not individuals. I watch or read about a given event, and as the reporter holds forth, I break the message down into bullet points in my mind, and determine which category each bullet point falls under.

Some people might struggle with the difference between speculation and opinion. The way I see it, when one speculates, they’re throwing out ideas as to what the truth may be in the matter. These speculations can have an agenda to sway the public toward a conspiracy theory, or they may come from a genuine desire to get to the bottom of things, despite a lack of solid evidence.

Opinions, on the other hand, are what you believe about a topic, whether the facts support your opinion or not. I’m only just beginning to realize that most neurotypical people are heavily invested in having others agree with their opinions. I’m all for that if your opinion is based on logic, but if you’re simply parroting the opinion that someone else has given you, or you’re leading with pure emotion, then I lose all respect for your thought process.

Speculations often lead to opinions, but they’re not identical. Either way, they’re not helpful. Basically, until all the facts are in, you are pulling conclusions out of your hind end. Who needs that?

Facts ought to be self explanatory. You’d think they would be. But critical thinking seems to have flown right out the window, and people seem to believe actual evidence is a waste of time. It makes me feel like there is no solid ground anymore, and that feels really scary to me.

But you know what’s scarier still? Now that I play this game regularly, I’m truly realizing how often reporters veer deep into the realm of speculation and opinion. Journalism is supposed to be anathema to that. But facts no longer seem to matter. and when you couple that with a total lack of critical thinking by those who consume this information, it is a dangerous path that society is walking down.

Please don’t take this as an opportunity to tar every journalist with the “fake news” brush. I only do that if I feel that they have a heavy agenda and they know darned well that what they are saying is a complete fabrication. Those types are the lowest of the low. But not all reporting is like that.

Some people stumble into the land of speculation or opinion without even realizing it. The amount of information flowing these days is so overwhelming that it’s impossible to keep up with. Even so, there is a great deal of pressure for reporters to tie up every story in a pretty little bow. Otherwise we stop paying attention.

Unfortunately, life isn’t usually like that. Therefore, reporters are increasingly tempted to speculate and share opinions rather than dig to the very root of the matter. There’s just no time for that in our fast paced world.

If you want some practice in playing Fact, Speculation, or Opinion, I suggest you head on over to the PolitiFact page and see how they go about debunking articles through their Pants on Fire! fact checks. Not only will it strengthen your ability to think critically, but it will also teach you what types of questions need to be asked in various situations. It’s quite eye opening.

For example, there’s been this story going around on social media that COVID vaccines caused more deaths than lives saved. You can see PolitiFact’s investigation of this story here.

First, PolitiFact checked the source of the information, and found that it came from Children’s Health Defense, an organization that has been proven to spread misinformation about vaccines. They also discovered that the story was based on a research paper written by two men who have been known to spread misinformation about both COVID and vaccines.

Next, PolitiFact checked with many experts on infectious diseases. They all agreed that the stories and the paper in question are based on misinformation which is contradicted by the facts. The global public health community agrees that these vaccines are both safe and effective. This is based on hundreds of peer reviewed papers that all draw this conclusion. Fact.

In addition, the paper in question was only published in one very obscure journal that has shown itself to be both predatory and controversial. The paper’s data comes from our VAERS system, where the public can report health effects that they believe came from their vaccination. Speculations. These reports are not run past people’s general practitioners, who are better equipped to determine the cause of an issue. I might think the blue sky is the reason my eyes are blue, but my doctor would never sign off on that. The data from VAERS is flawed and always has been. It even has that disclaimer on the website. Fact.

The paper also claims that the vaccine didn’t go through adequate testing, when all procedural evidence shows that not to be true. It also claims that the vaccinations can alter your DNA, which is scientifically impossible. Public health records indicate that 13 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered worldwide, and it is estimated that they have saved 14.4 million lives.

But the best part of the PolitiFact determination is that at the end it provides 37 sources for both the false claims and the proof that those claims are false. That alone makes me believe that they’ve done their homework, and didn’t just write something based on one hysterical paper that is entirely speculative (and I would say it is also extremely biased). People want this information to be true because it supports their debunked opinions. But these stories don’t hold water.

I have broken down so many stories into bullet points that I then have categorized as pure speculation that I’m starting to get irritated. Crystal balls may be pretty and tempting, but I don’t care about what people think might be the case. I don’t really care about their opinions, either. I want evidence. I want proof. I’m beginning to think that anything other than that is a gigantic waste of time. And I really, really hate having my time wasted. That, too, is a fact.

By the way, Dear Reader, I have never claimed to be a reporter. I mainly write opinion pieces, but my opinions are often backed by sources which I do my best to provide.

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You Neurotypicals Sure Do Talk Funny

“Get to the point!!!!”

Sometimes I feel as though I’m in a foreign country, even in my own town. Usually that’s because I’m with a group of neurotypical people who are speaking in their neurotypical ways, and I just don’t get it. On days when I’m tired, they may as well be speaking Esperanto, for all the sense it makes to my overwhelmed autistic brain. It can be disconcerting on the best of days, and completely isolating on the worst.

When neurotypicals hear me speak, they often describe me as blunt. To them, that means I must be being rude. But no. I’m just taking a direct path to the point I wish to make. I don’t like to waste time with abstractions and vagaries and metaphors. However, I do like to be sure I’m giving you all the pertinent details, and it seems that many NTs find that boring.

If you think I ask too many questions simply to be contrary, you’re wrong. I’m asking those questions to understand. I’m trying to get to those pertinent details that you seem to think are unnecessary.

And here’s the best way to drive me absolutely crazy: don’t answer a question. This is even worse now that so much of our communication is in writing. I assume most neurotypicals think they can get away with avoiding awkward questions simply by not answering them. That’s a lot harder to do when you’re face to face, but all too easy to do via text or email. Just because it’s easy doesn’t make it right.

If you’re ignoring my question, I can only conclude that you find it irrelevant, which is extremely rude and dismissive. Or perhaps you are afraid I won’t like the answer. But I wouldn’t be asking the question if I didn’t feel the need for an answer. Don’t cut me off from information just because direct communication makes you squirm. It’s the only way for me to know what’s going on.

From my point of view, NTs can be frustrating, because they seem to want me to read between the lines and jump to the same conclusions that they jump to. Inside, I’m screaming, “Get to the point!!!!” But my therapist assures me that neurotypical people often don’t know what their point is. That was eye-opening. They are so busy being subtle and vague so as not to ruffle feathers that they aren’t even sure what it is that they want or need or feel. That must be exhausting.

Why can’t you take responsibility for your own message? Don’t make me have to solve a puzzle to figure out what you’re trying to say. Just say it. I suppose if you’re vague enough and someone takes offense to your message, you can backpedal furiously and claim that’s not what you meant. It must be nice to have that amount of social wiggle room. I just find it a lot easier to say what I mean and mean what I say, and consequences be damned.

That is not me trying to be obstinate or manipulative. It’s not me being selfish or acting stupid to avoid doing something. It’s me being autistic and devoid of an agenda.

Please stop trying to force me to become neurotypical, because it’s not possible. It’s time to let go of the fantasy that autistic people can just snap out of it with the proper amount of nagging. We just don’t speak your language fluently, and we can’t seem to drop the neurodiverse “accent” just because it annoys you. And here’s a big ol’ scoop of food for thought for you: we shouldn’t have to.

And then there’s the whole body language thing. I’m focused on your words. I can’t be bothered to take in the change of the shape of your smile or the way your head is tilted. For me, it’s all about the words.

In fact, it’s so much about the words for me that I wish you wouldn’t focus on my body language either, because it’ll be confusing to you. I may not be looking you in the eye, but I’m paying close attention to what you’re saying. I may not be smiling, but that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy or disapproving or judging. It usually means I’m concentrating on your words so much that I forget that my face needs to be doing something in order for you to feel comfortable. Sorry.

Also, I have a very capable brain, but it has a slow processor. I often have to mull things over, or let them sink in, before I can respond. If I’m pausing, it’s not a sign of disagreement or dim-wittedness. It’s more like a slower wifi speed. The information may be moving at a snail’s pace, but it still has value. And if you are a fast talker, my anxiety goes through the roof and my processing time gets even slower. That often makes people get impatient with me, and that makes them talk even faster, which… well, I’m sure you can see the downward spiral toward total communication meltdown.

If your speech is peppered with the current pop culture references or cutting edge slang, odds are very good that you’ll have lost me. I’ve been described in many ways, but I’m fairly certain that no one has ever accused me of having my finger on the pulse of society. (Not that I’d want to anyway.)

I’ll also be the last person in the room to get a joke, and I find that humiliating because then I seem to become the joke. I particularly hate sarcasm, because it feels like cruelty to me. It’s like lingual bait and switch. People that use that form of humor are enjoying the fact that they are confusing people, and from my perspective, that’s just mean. I’m the easiest mark you’ll ever find. Let’s just concede that you won and that I don’t have a whip-crack mind. Let’s move on, shall we? Too much of that “making others look stupid” tactic and I’ll start avoiding you.

I am a very literal person. If you state an opinion, about me or anything else, I assume that’s really what you believe, because that’s how I process opinions. I’ve taken people literally my whole life, so I find it really hard to think they’re not doing the same when I speak. So, to avoid confusion, you can rest assured that I mean what I say. I speak my truth, always.

Also, if you ask for my opinion, I’ll give it to you. Why does that cause so much resentment? You asked. I don’t read between the lines, where it apparently says, “I don’t really want your opinion. I just don’t want to hurt your feelings, and in exchange I expect you to reflect the opinion that will be most agreeable to me.”

I’m rather new at autistic awareness, but what I’m finding is that neurotypical people are offended when they’re told the truth, and neurodivergent people are confused and offended when they’re told a lie. Of course, no two people are exactly alike. Your results may vary. But now that I’m more aware of our differences and similarities, that’s the conclusion I have arrived at. I don’t thrive in a lying world. I can’t understand why anyone would prefer that.

Here are a few examples of what it’s like to interact with others, from my neurodivergent perspective:

During spring break in college, I brought a friend home with me. She had to share a bedroom with my sister. At one point my sister wanted to go to bed early, and my friend said, “Would you mind if I left the light on and read a book?” My sister said, “Sure! No problem. Turn the light on any time.”

The next day, we got home late, and my friend went into the bedroom and turned the light on. My sister sat up and screamed at her to the point that my friend ran out of the bedroom and asked to share the very uncomfortable sofa bed with me. When I tried to defend my friend to my family the next day, none of them could understand why she would take it literally when my sister said, “Sure! No problem. Turn the light on any time.” To this day, I still think, “Why wouldn’t she? That’s what you said…”

Recently, a coworker showed me, for about the 10^th time, how she cleans the bathroom sink. I couldn’t understand why she kept doing that. I learned how she cleaned the sink the first time she showed me. I didn’t see the point of all that repetition, but that’s not unusual for me. Finally, after months of this foolishness, I figured out that she wasn’t trying to show me how she cleans the sink, she was trying to show me how she wanted me to clean the sink, because she doesn’t like the way I do it.

Why didn’t she just say that? It could have saved a lot of frustration on her part. It would definitely have saved a lot of confusion on mine. So please, just cut the crap. Say what you mean. Life’s too short for all this neurotypical foolishness.

Which leads me to one other issue that seems to be the source of the bulk of my conflicts: It never occurs to me that when I express an opinion, people assume that means I want them to have the same opinion, and the result is that they become upset at that prospect. But who the hell am I to tell you what to think? I can only tell you what I think, and even though it is just my opinion, as far as I’m concerned, it’s a fact that I have that opinion, and that’s absolutely, positively as far as my thought process on the subject goes. What you do with it after that is up to you.

At the risk of sounding blunt, I have to say that you neurotypicals are the weird ones. You expect people to be clairvoyant. You weave and bob and meander and backtrack. Excuse me, but I can’t follow you. It’s all I can do to walk a straight line, here.

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Assumptions

“My coworker is a slob. She says she cleans up after herself, but she doesn’t. I can tell. She has no respect for me, or for the job. She has a bad attitude. She can’t be trusted.”

Wow. I’d hate to work with someone like that! It must be so frustrating. That can’t be doing good things for your morale.

Here’s the problem with that assessment, though. It includes no fewer than 6 assumptions. The speaker is viewing those assumptions as fact. Let’s pull back the veil and look at the actual situation.

Your coworker isn’t more or less sloppy than the average person. You, in fact, are obsessive compulsive and hypervigilant. She does clean up after herself. It’s just that by the time you come along, several other people have been in the work area, and your coworker has no control over that. The state of the office is not a reflection of her respect or lack thereof. She actually loves the job and takes it very seriously. Her attitude is quite good, but she admittedly is on the defensive in your presence because her experience with you is that you are judgmental. She’s extremely trustworthy. (You might want to ask yourself if you find it possible to completely trust anyone.)

That kind of sheds a different light on the subject, doesn’t it? We all see the world through different lenses. We are the sum total of our past experiences. We all have our weaknesses and strengths.

Viewing assumptions as truths is life’s shorthand. It sure makes things go faster… but often in the wrong direction. As a coping mechanism, it does not serve us well. But it takes practice, being self-critical.

When is the last time you asked yourself what proof you had for a particular conclusion? How do you know people are thinking what you think they’re thinking? Have you asked? Mind reading is a heady power, but it’s the worst assumption of all.

Another assumption would be that I’m an expert at identifying my assumptions simply because I’m writing a post on the topic. On the contrary, I struggle with this concept on a daily basis. I’d like to think that I’m getting better at separating fact from fiction, but I suspect this will be a lifelong exercise in self-improvement, and one that’s entirely too important to pass over.

Assume

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Self-Evident Truths?

I think “obviously” is one of the most dangerous words in the English language, as is its more formal and old-fashioned counterpart, “self-evident”. When the US Declaration of Independence was written, with its famous, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal…” slavery was still legal on this continent, and women could not vote. To this very day, equality seems to elude us. Clearly that truth isn’t self-evident to everyone.

Truth is truth. Facts are facts. You have a right to your opinion. But that doesn’t mean these things are obvious or even generally accepted.

When I hear myself or someone else say obviously, I take it as a cue to evaluate the statement. Here are some things that some find obvious, but others do not, sometimes with good reason.

“Obviously…”

A healthy environment is more important than a healthy bank account.
If you deprive a mentally ill person of the right to own an assault weapon, you are part of the problem.
Everything tastes better when you wrap it in bacon.
There’s someone out there for you.
It’s impossible to function without an iPhone.
My children are a delight to be around and can do no wrong.
Gay marriage is the end of civilization as we know it.
Growing old is a bad thing.
Everyone would prefer to work in an office rather than outside.
When Donald Trump says he’d bring back waterboarding, we should all cheer.
My religion is the only true one.
Everyone should read my blog.
This land is your land.
If you’re not a size 3, you should be ashamed of your body.
Education is dangerous.
Knowledge is power.
‘Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.

It’s important to remember that not everyone sees the world in the same way. Obviously.

CB and snoopy_zpsoucuhwsf

Consider the Source?

When I was young and my mother complained about being cold, I’d tell her to put on a hat because most of your body heat exits from the top of your head. Putting on a hat goes a long way toward warming you up. She would look at me funny, shake her head, and go get a jacket or drink something warm. That used to frustrate me. Did she think I was making this stuff up?

10 years later, she mentioned to my brother-in-law, who is an engineer, that she was cold. He told her to put on a hat, because… blah, blah, blah. She immediately put on a hat.

I said to her, “Now, why is it you believe him when I’ve been telling you the same thing, to no avail, for years?”

No explanation, no acknowledgment, no apology. But then my mother always did have an unquestioning faith in men, often to her downfall and everlasting regret. I tried to console myself that she was a product of her generation, but to this day when I’m not taken seriously it makes me want to screech.

Fast forward about 30 years, and I’m riding down the road with my boyfriend at the time, when he suddenly comes to a dead stop on a divided highway because he sees a school bus that is going the opposite direction come to a stop to let off some children. I hear tires skidding behind us, and horns blaring, and I say, “What are you doing?” (Actually, I was quite likely much less diplomatic than that.)

He simply says, “School bus.”

And I say, “Yeah, but it’s a divided highway! You’re not supposed to stop! You’re going to get us killed.”

Could he even hear me over the squealing of tires? Apparently so. He explained that Big John, his boss, told him he was supposed to stop. I closed my eyes and braced for impact. Fortunately everyone managed to swerve around us. (No one stopped, of course.)

Later that day, once the adrenaline had stopped pumping, I sent him a link to the Florida License Bureau rules of the road that pertains to busses stopping on divided highways. I was right. Big John was wrong. But Big John had a body part that I did not, so apparently that gave him a certain level of legitimacy that I lacked.

Screech.

When I hear people dismiss women as silly or hysterical or emotional, or tell them not to worry their pretty little heads, it causes me to wear down my back molars. I mean, yes, it’s important to consider the source of your information before deciding if it’s worth taking seriously, but while you are doing that, you may also want to contemplate what criteria you are employing to make your decisions. Rule things out due to the source’s lack of expertise and/or biased agenda, but if you are discounting something solely due to the source’s gender or race or age, you are doing that person (and by extension, yourself), a great disservice.

confirmation-bias — [Image credit: pinterest.com]

Finding your Truth

People often make the mistake of thinking that truth is like some kind of moral binary code. It’s either one or zero. Fact or fiction. Yes or no. Right or wrong. Good or evil.

Black or white. But most of us, if we’re honest, navigate the grey areas more often than we have perfect, unarguable mental, moral and emotional clarity on any given subject. And that can be scary.

Never fear. In times of ambiguity, one can always cling to one’s philosophical truths. This is where truth becomes less binary, because each of us has our own. These are the values that make each of us unique. They can be things we’ve learned the hard way, or things that define us, things that make us proud, or things we have to overcome.

Here are some truths. Many of them are not my truths. They belong to people I love.

Creativity is an important part of my life.
I will never let anyone hit me again. Ever.
I don’t want to be a parent, and that’s okay.
I am gay.
I will not let my constant pain define me.
My spouse no longer loves me, but a lot of other people do.
I am a writer.
It’s not a good idea to talk to me before I’ve had my morning coffee.
I’ve hurt people in the past. I will do my best to make amends and move forward.
My children are my life.
I will always be able to count on my intelligence.
It is important for me to maintain my sense of humor.
I drink too much.
I care about the wider world.
I have dreams and aspirations.
I’d rather have my integrity than my job.
I’m proud of the fact that I live up to my responsibilities.

What are your truths? This is worth pondering, because the more you can express your truths, the stronger and more self-confident you will become.

Lying Down with Dogs

Here’s another one of my theories.

There are two types of dog owners: those who allow their dogs to sleep in their beds and those who do not. Well, technically, that part is a fact. But here comes the theory part: you can tell a lot about a person by which of these two groups he or she falls into.

Bed people (and in the interests of full disclosure, I am one of these) are nurturing, and tend to be more interested in love and affection than they are in strict cleanliness and control. Floor people are more regimented. Their bed linens tend to match and are not to be disturbed. If you are the type to iron your underwear, you’re a floor person, no doubt about it.

And because, as the saying goes, birds of a feather flock together, if you’re a bed person, your friends tend to be bed people, too. Bed people find floor people to be anal retentive, and floor people think bed people are sloppy and inefficient.

Floor people make excellent administrators. Without them, the trains would not run on time, and our medical files would be lost forever. Bed people, on the other hand, tend to be more creative and artistic. They make the world colorful and entertaining.

Bed people stop and smell the roses. Floor people plant the roses. Floor people save for retirement. Bed people live for the moment. Floor people tuck in their shirts. Bed people resent that they even have to wear them.

There is a place in this world for both groups of people. And I’m delighted to say that they both love and care for their dogs. The world would be completely unrecognizable without both groups. It’s as if there’s this canine yin yang thing happening, and it makes the world go ‘round.

But there is a third group of dog owners that I haven’t mentioned, which I call scum people. Dogs are social animals that live for nothing but approval, but this group will chain their dogs up all alone in the back yard, rain or shine, winter or summer. They let them howl all night long, and feed them Rob Roy dog food, which has absolutely no nutritional value, because it’s cheap. The more extreme members of this crowd own puppy mills or are into dog fighting. Their dogs tend to flinch when a hand is extended toward them, because their experience with hands has been harsh and painful. This group of people, as far as I’m concerned, is the scum of the earth and shouldn’t be allowed the privilege of owning a pet. I suppose there is some biological need for scum in this world, but for the life of me, I’ve yet to find it.

I much prefer bed people and floor people.

(Image credit: myhoundhaven.org)

The Misinformation Movement

The other day I was perusing Youtube and I came across this video called The Eyeball Collector:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdaJRJFMty8

It says in capital letters, TRUE CRIME CASE, so I was taken in for a split second. But, as I’ve written in a recent blog entry, I am a bit of a sick puppy, so surely in all my twisted web searches I’d have come across a little girl who likes to collect eyeballs. I mean, how could I have missed that? So I did a Google search, and sure enough, the ONLY hit is for this guy’s video. And not a thing on Wikipedia, either.

I decided to look into this guy’s list of other videos. A lot of “TRUE CRIME CASES” popped up. These included “The Killer Santa”, “The Spam Murders”, “The Sofa Corpse”, and “The Lesbian Bride Murder”. Actually, they’re worth a peek, because once you figure out they’re bogus, they’re kind of fun to watch. The guy’s got the kind of warped imagination that appeals to me. But what disturbs me are the comments. People actually fall for this stuff! They think they’re true. He could have advertised them as jokes, and I’d still have watched them, and I would have had much more respect for him.

The thing is, this is becoming more and more of a trend. It’s so easy to communicate with the world these days that people with questionable integrity are taking advantage of it. We saw that, in particular, with Hurricane Sandy. Some bozo decided to tell the world that the New York Stock Exchange was under 3 feet of water, and that spread quickly through Facebook and Twitter, and before all was said and done, it was even reported on CNN. If it had been true, it could have had worldwide financial implications, so spreading that kind of bs is, at best, irresponsible.

I have even found myself unintentionally participating in the misinformation movement. I once posted a link to Sokoblovsky Farms on my Facebook page. For the uninitiated, this was a really cute prank web page for a supposed miniature giraffe farm. It even had a “live” webcam of its “petite lap giraffes”.

I thought it was cute and funny, but I never in a million years expected that people would BELIEVE that there are actually miniature giraffes out there. Within 24 hours, half my friends list was desperately searching for a way to own one! Good grief. I had to explain, and then I felt horrible about disappointing them. It kind of makes you wonder about the gullibility of the internet viewing public. Now if you do a search of Sokoblovsky Farms, what you find is a lot of links to people asking “Does this place really exist?” So sad.

There are generations of adults now who have lived with the internet their whole lives. I fear that that will engender in them an unhealthy level of trust in this type of media. It takes a lot of effort to double check every fact you come across, but please, at the very least, go to www.snopes.com or www.factcheck.org before spreading misinformation. Not a week goes by without my receiving some hysterical, cautionary and FALSE e-mail in my inbox, which I am able to debunk through Snopes in a matter of seconds, but when I point this out to the sender, I rarely see them sending out a follow up e-mail that says, “oops…”.

Misinformation is easy to spread. I’d like to think most of it is unintentional. But it has to originate somewhere. If you’re an originator, thanks for the laughs, but SHAME on you.

If I Disagree with You, It’s because You’re Wrong.

When my late sister wanted to push my buttons, she would say, “You have very strong opinions.” For decades, this put me in a place where I could not win. I wanted her approval so much that I’d try not to have strong opinions. I’d try not to have any opinions at all. I’d try to figure out exactly where I was wrong, or bad or crazy. I’d try to change who I was, and I’d fail, and therefore feel even worse about myself.

Then one day in my early 40’s it occurred to me that maybe the reason she felt that my opinions were so strong was that they weren’t being changed by her often contradictory ones. I realized that everyone is entitled to an opinion. I express my opinions, yes, but I never insist that the rest of the world agree with me. In fact, I find that in general I’m not particularly persuasive. I finally said to my sister, “Yeah, but as long as I’m not forcing those opinions on you, what difference does it make?” And just like that, after decades of what felt like pure torture to me, that particular button was never pushed again.

Opinions. Everybody’s got ‘em.

Just recently, in my internet wanderings, I was introduced to a concept called confirmation bias. Here’s what Wikipedia has to say about it:

“Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. For example, in reading about current political issues, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position.”

I suppose I always knew that confirmation bias existed, but I never knew it had a name or that so many studies have been done about it. I’m willing to concede that every one of us is guilty of confirmation bias, but here’s where it gets dangerous: people in the throes of confirmation bias can make bad investments, poor choices, or break laws. Have you ever said, “It seemed like a good idea at the time…”

Economies have been destroyed and wars have been waged by people influenced by their own confirmation bias. It is why the concept of bloodletting persisted for 2,000 years, and why there are still people, even today, who think the world is flat, and that man has never walked on the moon. Confirmation bias is the bedrock of every cult and lunatic fringe militia on the face of the earth.

Unfortunately, it’s also a major factor in many forms of mental illness. Depressed? It will be so much easier to believe the negative things said about you, your circumstances, or the world in general, thanks to your old friend confirmation bias. Schizophrenic? It’s not that hard to find people who agree with the voices in your head. Hypochondriac? Someone will gladly confirm your diagnoses for a price, and since they agree with you, they must be more right than those doctors who are telling you that you’re fine. Paranoid? In this information age, when any nut case can have a platform to express his views (including me!), you’re bound to find “evidence” to support your conspiracy theories.

The good news is there are things you can do to reduce your confirmation bias.

Take the extra time to actually confirm facts. Two of my favorite websites for this are www.snopes.com, and www.factcheck.org.
Keep an open mind. Allow yourself to hear opposing opinions and ideas, and if they come with a boatload of documentation, you may want to take them seriously. This is called exploratory thought.
Take pride in being able to say, “I was wrong.” It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to do so.
Ask yourself if you are rejecting information simply because it doesn’t confirm your belief. Then ask yourself why it’s so important to you to maintain the belief you have.
Think critically and logically instead of emotionally and aggressively.
Continually ask yourself, “Is this information a fact, or is it an opinion or a rumor?”
Try to stay rational and remain calm. If you think there’s some evil international conspiracy at work, and you seem to be the only one privy to it, odds are you have a problem, because a) It’s nearly impossible for more than two people to keep a secret, and b) What are the odds that YOU are the one person on the entire planet to have been given this revelation? I mean, yeah, it could happen, but the odds are heavily stacked against you.
Apply the principle of Occam’s Razor. The simplest theory, the one that requires the least amount of assumptions, is often the correct one. For example, unless you live in Africa, if you see hoof prints, think horses, not zebras.
Think for yourself. If the evidence before you is that the emperor has no clothes, then he’s naked, regardless of what everyone around you is saying. Be careful about this, though. Make sure you’re drawing your conclusions from facts, not simply from a strong desire to see the emperor naked.

Of course, all of this is my opinion. Feel free to decide for yourself.